🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform Trader Earned $Nearly Half a Million from Bets on the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader just before it was made public, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from non-public details of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Wagers Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the close of the month rose in the time leading up to Donald Trump declared on Saturday that Maduro had been apprehended. One account, which registered on the site recently and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a modest bet of $32.5K. It remains unclear. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before Public Statement Trading information shows that users estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet the odds had climbed to 11% by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the morning of Saturday, indicating a sudden change in betting activity just before the public announcement was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a bet based on non-public details," said a financial reform advocate. Several of other platform users also earned tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Political Attention Emerges Elected officials are growing concerned. Proposed legislation put forward on Monday would prevent federal workers from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in the United States, with traders able to predict everything from sports outcomes to political events. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the forecasting arena. A company executive for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."