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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers rising collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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